I Like This Black Hills Market-Mending
Sure, Black Hills 'mainstream' real estate volume (units sold) was down 34% from last year at last check. But prices were pretty much holding on.
Here is what that means... When there are 34% fewer sales, then real estate agents split a pie that shrunk by 1/3. Therefore, only some of us real estate agents are maintaining our own production targets. (I, for one, am still going gangbusters thanks to my great clients!)
But, don't tell anyone (since they don't believe it anyway)...Prices are holding steady, our Black Hills home owners and home buyers are doing much, nay, 'enormously' better than the rest of the country.
So, what do I see in the cold facts of market data that make me feel so good about 'the market'?
Simple. We are on a slow, steady, consistent rebuild trend. Fortunately, the Stimulus incentives have not triggered an "irrational feeding frenzy" among buyers. And fortunately, the sellers are not doing a "cut and run" from their homes for sale. My own clients are digging in their heels and demanding a fair market value. We are woefully (gleefully?) short of foreclosures compared to the rest of the country.
And what cold facts lead me to feel so (relatively) sanguine about the future? Let's look at some of those "Leading Indicators" I mentioned in a recent post.
Nationally, interest rates are still wonderfully low. The nationwide proportion of loan applications that are just re-fi's is down 11.2 percent from last month, and the number of more-meaningufl purchase-mortgage applications is up. Nationwide "Pending Home-sales" volume has been trending up this spring from the winter doldrums, as it is supposed to each spring in a healthy market.
But I am concerned about two things. If these don't start strengthening quite a lot fairly soon then there could be some irrepressible structural challenges ahead. Consumer Confidence Index is down a lot. That keeps buyers on the sidelines. And it gives potential sellers so many jitters they, too, tend to hunker down.
Here is what that means... When there are 34% fewer sales, then real estate agents split a pie that shrunk by 1/3. Therefore, only some of us real estate agents are maintaining our own production targets. (I, for one, am still going gangbusters thanks to my great clients!)
But, don't tell anyone (since they don't believe it anyway)...Prices are holding steady, our Black Hills home owners and home buyers are doing much, nay, 'enormously' better than the rest of the country.
So, what do I see in the cold facts of market data that make me feel so good about 'the market'?
Simple. We are on a slow, steady, consistent rebuild trend. Fortunately, the Stimulus incentives have not triggered an "irrational feeding frenzy" among buyers. And fortunately, the sellers are not doing a "cut and run" from their homes for sale. My own clients are digging in their heels and demanding a fair market value. We are woefully (gleefully?) short of foreclosures compared to the rest of the country.
And what cold facts lead me to feel so (relatively) sanguine about the future? Let's look at some of those "Leading Indicators" I mentioned in a recent post.
Nationally, interest rates are still wonderfully low. The nationwide proportion of loan applications that are just re-fi's is down 11.2 percent from last month, and the number of more-meaningufl purchase-mortgage applications is up. Nationwide "Pending Home-sales" volume has been trending up this spring from the winter doldrums, as it is supposed to each spring in a healthy market.
But I am concerned about two things. If these don't start strengthening quite a lot fairly soon then there could be some irrepressible structural challenges ahead. Consumer Confidence Index is down a lot. That keeps buyers on the sidelines. And it gives potential sellers so many jitters they, too, tend to hunker down.
The other concern I have is unemployment. While the rate of job-loss has improved, it is still a hugely important number of lost jobs and people out of work. Things have to be pretty bad, when we are glad to see a big job loss number, and just glad it's not as bad as last time.
But what do I see in the local market stats? A much happier picture, for sure. Take a look at one of the market-summary charts above. Sales volume is trending up (and nearly even with the bubble's peak). Pending Sales volume is trending up. New Listings is trending up. Number of Expired Listings is trending down.
So, that is why "I like this Black Hills market-mending" process. And it doesn't hurt that my own volume of new clients is way up, my sales are way up, and the flow of new prospective clients is growing weekly.
Life is good. And real estate is better. Dive in.
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